-A predictions article for every category of the 2019 Oscars.

Hollywood’s biggest night is here, and after the divergent results of the precursor awards such as the Golden Globes, SAGs, and BAFTAs, we have some clear front-runners and also some races where the winner seems completely unascertainable with the data we currently have. After weighing those awards, some anecdotal evidence from interviews, and also the Vegas odds, I’ve finally arrived at my conclusions for Sunday night.

This article will take each race and give a “will win” as our official prediction, a “could win” if you’re looking for a value bet in the category, a “should win” with my personal opinion, and also a “should’ve been nominated” to give spotlight to some snubs in places the Academy may have erred. My normal percentage of success is around 75-80% for the Oscars in previous years.

I also write this without giving predictions for three categories: Documentary Feature, Documentary Short, and Live Action Short, because I just haven’t seen enough of the films to make an informed prediction. In my research, I’ve decided to choose “Marguerite” for Live Action Short, “A Night at the Garden” for Documentary Short, and then it appears that Free Solo is the leader in the documentary category after the Academy omitted three very successful docs from this year in Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, and Shirkers. Of the ones that remain, Free Solo and then Minding the Gap have been talked about the most. Those are my uninformed projections for categories I’m not as familiar with. The rest of them, set forth below, concern things I’ve seen in full.

Finally, as one bit of house-keeping, my year-end list will come out to coincide with the Oscars, I’ve finally narrowed it to the final 25 with a few honorable mentions. Let’s get started:

 

BEST PICTURE:

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star is Born

Vice

 

will win: Roma

could win: Green Book

should win: A Star is Born

should be here: First Reformed and Mission: Impossible- Fallout

 

BEST DIRECTOR:

Spike Lee- BlacKkKlansman

Pawel Pawlikowski- Cold War

Yorgos Lanthimos- The Favourite

Alfonso Cuaron- Roma

Adam McKay- Vice

 

will win: Alfonso Cuaron for Roma

could win: Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman

should win: Alfonso Cuaron for Roma

should be here: Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born and Lynne Ramsay for You Were Never Really Here

 

BEST ACTRESS:

Melissa McCarthy- Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Olivia Colman- The Favourite

Yalitza Aparicio- Roma

Lady Gaga- A Star is Born

Glenn Close- The Wife

 

will win: Glenn Close for The Wife

could win: Olivia Colman for The Favourite

should win: Lady Gaga for A Star is Born

should be here: Toni Collette for Hereditary and Rosamund Pike for A Private War

 

BEST ACTOR:

Willem Dafoe- At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek- Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen- Green Book

Bradley Cooper- A Star is Born

Christian Bale- Vice

 

will win: Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody

could win: Christian Bale for Vice

should win: Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born

should be here: Ethan Hawke for First Reformed and Tom Cruise for Mission: Impossible- Fallout

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Emma Stone- The Favourite

Rachel Weisz- The Favourite

Regina King- If Beale Street Could Talk

Marina de Tavira- Roma

Amy Adams- Vice

 

will win: Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk

could win: Rachel Weisz for The Favourite

should win: Rachel Weisz for The Favourite

should be here: Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place and Thomasin McKenzie for Leave No Trace

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Adam Driver- BlacKkKlansman

Richard E Grant- Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Mahershala Ali- Green Book

Sam Elliot- A Star is Born

Sam Rockwell- Vice

 

will win: Mahershala Ali for Green Book

could win: Richard E Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

should win: Richard E Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

should be here: Timothe Chalamet for Beautiful Boy and Armie Hammer for Sorry to Bother You

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

D. Davis, T. McNamara- The Favourite

P. Schrader- First Reformed

N. Vallelonga, B. Currie, P. Farrelly- Green Book

A. Cuaron- Roma

A. McKay- Vice

 

will win: The Favourite

could win: Green Book

should win: The Favourite

should be here: B. Riley for Sorry to Bother You and B. Burnham for Eighth Grade

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

J. Coen, E. Coen- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

C. Wachtel, D. Rabinowitz, K. Willmott, S. Lee- BlacKkKlansman

N. Holofcener, J. Whitty- Can You Ever Forgive Me?

B. Jenkins- If Beale Street Could Talk

E. Roth, B. Cooper, W. Fetters- A Star is Born 

 

will win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

could win: BlacKkKlansman

should win: If Beale Street Could Talk

should be here: A. Garland, J. Vandermeer for Annihilation and P. Dano, Z. Kazan for Wildlife

 

ANIMATED FEATURE:

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

 

will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

could win: Incredibles 2

should win: Isle of Dogs

should be here: X (I have no additions to this category)

 

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Capernaum (Lebanon)

Cold War (Poland)

Never Look Away (Germany)

Roma (Mexico)

Shoplifters (Japan)

 

will win: Roma

could win: Cold War

should win: Roma

should be here: Burning (South Korea)

 

ANIMATED SHORT:

Animal Behavior

Bao

Late Afternoon

One Small Step

Weekends

 

will win: Bao

could win: Weekends

should win: Late Afternoon

should be here: X (I have no additions to this category)

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Cold War

The Favourite

Never Look Away

Roma

A Star is Born

 

will win: Roma

could win: Cold War

should win: Roma

should be here: Wildlife

 

COSTUME DESIGN

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary, Queen of Scots

 

will win: Black Panther

could win: The Favourite

should win: Black Panther

should be here: A Simple Favor

 

MAKE-UP & HAIR:

Border

Mary, Queen of Scots

Vice

 

will win: Vice

could win: Mary, Queen of Scots

should win: Vice

should be here: Stan & Ollie

 

EDITING:

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Vice

 

will win: Bohemian Rhapsody

could win: Vice

should win: Vice

should be here: Avengers: Infinity War

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Black Panther

The Favourite

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

 

will win: The Favourite

could win: Black Panther

should win: First Man

should be here: Suspiria

 

ORIGINAL SONG

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs- “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings”

Black Panther- “All the Stars”

Mary Poppins Returns- “The Place Where Lost Things Go”

RBG- “I’ll Fight”

A Star is Born– “Shallow”

 

will win: “Shallow”

could win: “All the Stars”

should win: “Shallow”

should be here: A Star is Born- “I’ll Always Remember Us This Way”

 

ORIGINAL SCORE

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Mary Poppins Returns

 

will win: If Beale Street Could Talk

could win: Black Panther

should win: If Beale Street Could Talk

should be here: Annihilation

 

VISUAL EFFECTS

Avengers: Infinity War

Christopher Robin

First Man

Ready Player One

Solo: A Star Wars Story

 

will win: Avengers: Infinity War

could win: First Man

should win: First Man

should be here: Aquaman

 

SOUND EDITING

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

A Quiet Place

Roma

 

will win: Bohemian Rhapsody

could win: A Quiet Place

should win: First Man

should be here: A Star is Born

 

SOUND MIXING

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Roma

A Star is Born

 

will win: Bohemian Rhapsody

could win: A Star is Born

should win: A Star is Born

should be here: Vice

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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