Blended Opinion

-A group of predictions about who will get nominated at the Oscars in some major categories and also on how the Golden Globes will shake out this Sunday.

As usual, I have not seen everything that is being considered for nominations, especially because there’re a few movies which either have not expanded to suburban theaters (1917) or just recently opened and I still need to catch (Little Women).  However, I am confident that I have a good view of the awards season picture, having seen probably 90% of everything I want to discuss.

Let’s start with some predicted Oscar nominations:

 

WHO WILL BE NOMINATED? (THE OSCARS)

Best Picture:

Locks:

1- The Irishman

2- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3- Marriage Story

4- 1917

Seems Pretty Likely:

5- Parasite

Still Likely But Less Certain:

6- Jojo Rabbit

7- Joker

Fringe Candidates, Depends on How Many Get Nominated:

8- Little Women

9- Ford v. Ferrari

10- The Farewell

11- Bombshell

12- The Two Popes

Longer Shots:

13- Richard Jewell

14- Knives Out

15- Uncut Gems

16- A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

17- Dolemite is My Name

18- Rocketman

19- Us

20- Pain & Glory

 

– There is a pretty solid Top 5 in this category with movies that stand far above the rest of the field.  Both The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood come from cherished, acclaimed directors and likely will capture the default support of much of the voting body.  Both films are excellent and both have a legitimate chance of winning as of now.

From there, it seems like Marriage Story is firmly entrenched in the conversation, and while it is a less likely winner than some of these noisier, longer films, I would guess that it will remain a lock for Best Picture and potentially compete more seriously in acting and screenplay.  1917 is an odd case because: 1) I haven’t seen it yet, and 2) it screened very late for a lot of critics.  Although it’s been met with almost universal acclaim, it’s currently tough to gauge how possible its chances are at winning.  My guess currently is that it will be a nominee and time will tell how competitive it will be.

I have Parasite alone in its own tier in 5th, not because I think it’s less likely to win than the ones above it, but rather that I acknowledge its floor is a bit lower.  Where the awards season stands right now, I’m just not comfortable considering any foreign film as a lock for Best Picture . . . sometimes, voters just sit in their own English-language bubble.  It’s rare for a foreign film to also be recognized in Best Picture.  If it does get nominated, though, it has a real chance as a dark horse victor.

Joker and Jojo Rabbit feel like they will be nominees after strong film-festival showings and consistent mentions during the precursor awards, but they’re both a bit more divisive than the films ahead.

The Academy may vote up to ten for Best Picture, but it seems common to sit in the 8-9 range.  With seven already on the board, films like Little Women, The Two Popes, Bombshell, Ford v. Ferrari, and The Farewell are all competing for the limited spots.  Anything I have on the list after those seems very unlikely to be nominated.

 

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role:

Locks:

1- Renee Zellweger (Judy)

2- Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)

Likely Nominees:

3- Charlize Theron (Bombshell)

4- Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)

Competing for the Last Spot:

5- Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)

6- Lupita Nyong’o (Us)

7- Awkwafina (The Farewell)

Longer Shots:

8- Alfie Woodard (Clemency)

9- Cate Blanchett (Where’d You Go, Bernadette?)

Dark Horses:

10- Mary Kay Place (Diane)

11- Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell)

12- Ana de Armas (Knives Out)

13- Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)

14- Jessie Buckley (Wild Rose)

15- Julianne Moore (Gloria Bell)

 

– At this point in the race, this feels like Zellweger’s to lose for her committed performance as Judy Garland.  It’s exactly the type of biopic fodder that usually cleans up at the Academy Awards, and it is usually at the expense of a better performance, like Scar Jo in Marriage Story.

That being said, Johansson will definitely be nominated, as will Theron for Bombshell as Megyn Kelly.  I also have Cynthia Erivo as a likely nominee because she has been consistently recognized in the precursors and appears to be campaigning pretty hard for the nomination despite mixed reception to the film itself.

The last spot is very tough, and I waffled back and forth between Nyong’o and Ronan, settling on Ronan because of the Academy’s normal unwillingness to nominate big acting performances in horror films, see Toni Collette last year.  I think Awkwafina has an outsider’s chance at a nomination and then everyone below her seems fairly unlikely, barring a rise from Woodard for the barely-seen Clemency.

 

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role:

Locks:

1- Adam Driver (Marriage Story)

2- Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Seem Likely but This Category is Packed:

3- Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

4- Antonio Banderas (Pain & Glory)

Fighting for a Spot, or Could Replace Someone Above:

5- Taron Egerton (Rocketman)

6- Christian Bale (Ford v. Ferrari)

7- Robert DeNiro (The Irishman)

8- Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Higher Than Dark Horses, but Not Super Likely:

9- Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is My Name)

10- Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)

Dark Horses:

11- Paul W. Hauser (Richard Jewell)

12- Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy)

13- Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse)

14- Mark Ruffalo (Dark Waters)

15- Daniel Craig (Knives Out)

 

– This category is stacked and goes about ten deep with people I could potentially see with nominations.  I think the safest bet to secure a nomination is Driver, but I wouldn’t be particularly optimistic about him winning because of how focused and arguably unflashy the performance is.  Phoenix seems like a safe bet for a nomination, but I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that Joker disappoints on the day of nominations.  Even if it does, I would assume Phoenix would still be safe.

The bottom section of the category is entirely in flux.  Banderas’s performance was so widely praised, he seemed like a lock until SAG left him off, putting him on potentially shaky ground.  But, Bale was left off of the seven-deep list for critics choice, and DeNiro’s lack of golden globes attention could be because he’s insulted the body in the past.  DeNiro was also left off SAG after being previously considered a front-runner.  Then, Egerton felt like a dark horse for awhile until he started appearing on more and more precursor lists, including SAG.  The best way I can frame it is that the category is entirely in flux.  There’s also a world in which Eddie Murphy wins the Actor-Comedy award at the globes and propels himself back into the Oscar conversation.  Who knows?

 

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Locks:

1- Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

Likely:

2- Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)

3- Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

Tough Call for Back of Category:

4- Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)

5- Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)

6- Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell)

7- Florence Pugh (Little Women)

Also Very Possible:

8- Annette Bening (The Report)

9- Nicole Kidman (Bombshell)

Dark Horses:

10- Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

11- Octavia Spencer (Luce)

12- Taylor Russell (Waves)

 

– Lopez feels likely the likeliest winner here, and yet I can’t call her a lock for the nomination because of how explosive Hustlers is visually.  I’m not convinced it will be the Academy’s bag, even though Lopez has been largely lauded heading up to nominations.  Dern feels like a lock, and Margot Robbie is increasingly seeming like one as the back part of this category sorts itself out between up to six different women.

Johansson was recognized at SAG and in Critics Choice, while Bates was nominated at the globes and through the National Board of Review.  Going into awards season, I thought the praise being heaped on Zhao Shuzhen as the grandmother in The Farewell, as well as how lauded Florence Pugh was, would carry them both to nominations.  They both have struggled in the precursors, leading to Bening’s pretty small performance in The Report getting some attention.

 

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role:

Locks:

1- Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

2- Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)

Do They Both Get Nominated?:

3- Joe Pesci (The Irishman)

4- Al Pacino (The Irishman)

Decent Chance for the Last Spot or Two:

5- Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

6- Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)

7- Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse)

Dark Horses:

8- Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)

9- Sterling K. Brown (Waves)

10- Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)

11- Timothe Chalamet (Little Women)

12- Song Kong-ho (Parasite)

 

– Wrapping up my Oscar predictions on who will be nominated, this category seems pretty slight on possible nominees.  Pitt seems like a lock to not only get nominated but also win, with Hanks, Pesci, and Pacino all getting plenty of attention further down the totem pole.  In a year where there were more contenders, the fact that one movie would have two nominees in the same category would raise a red flag, but I find it unlikely Foxx or Dafoe will sub in for one of them.

 

 

GOLDEN GLOBES PREDICTIONS

 

FILM:

Best Picture-Drama

The Nominees:

1917

The Irishman

Joker

Marriage Story

The Two Popes

 

will win: The Irishman

could win: Joker

should win: Marriage Story

confidence level: medium

 

Best Picture- Comedy/Musical

The Nominees: 

Dolemite is My Name

Jojo Rabbit

Knives Out

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Rocketman

 

will win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

could win: Rocketman

should win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

confidence level: high

 

Best Director

The Nominees:

Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)

Sam Mendes (1917)

Todd Phillips (Joker)

Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)

Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

 

will win: Bong Joon-ho

could win: Quentin Tarantino

should win: Bong Joon-ho

confidence level: low (it feels like any of the five could win)

 

Best Screenplay

The Nominees:

Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)

Bong Joon-ho & Han Jin-won (Parasite)

Anthony McCarten (The Two Popes)

Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Steven Zallian (The Irishman)

 

will win: Noah Baumbach

could win: Quentin Tarantino

should win: Quentin Tarantino

confidence level: medium (seems like a toss-up between Baumbach and Tarantino)

 

Best Male Actor- Drama

The Nominees:

Christian Bale (Ford v. Ferrari)

Antonio Banderas (Pain & Glory)

Adam Driver (Marriage Story)

Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

 

will win: Joaquin Phoenix

could win: Adam Driver

should win: Adam Driver

confidence level: medium (seems it’ll be Phoenix)

 

Best Female Actor- Drama

The Nominees:

Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)

Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)

Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)

Charlize Theron (Bombshell)

Renee Zellweger (Judy)

 

will win: Renee Zellweger

could win: Charlize Theron

should win: Scarlett Johansson

confidence level: high

 

Best Male Actor- Comedy/Musical

The Nominees:

Daniel Craig (Knives Out)

Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit)

Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Taron Egerton (Rocketman)

Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is My Name)

 

will win: Taron Egerton

could win: Eddie Murphy

should win: Leonardo DiCaprio

confidence level: low (maybe I’m underestimating Leo, so I think there are three potential winners here)

 

 

Best Female Actor- Comedy/Musical

The Nominees:

Ana de Armas (Knives Out)

Awkwafina (The Farewell)

Cate Blanchett (Where’d You Go, Bernadette?)

Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)

Emma Thompson (Late Night)

 

will win: Awkwafina

could win: Cate Blanchett

should win: Awkwafina

confidence level: medium

 

Best Supporting Male

The Nominees:

Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)

Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

Al Pacino (The Irishman)

Joe Pesci (The Irishman)

Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

 

will win: Brad Pitt

could win: Al Pacino

should win: Tom Hanks

confidence level: high

 

Best Supporting Female

The Nominees:

Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)

Annette Bening (The Report)

Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)

Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

 

will win: Jennifer Lopez

could win: Laura Dern

should win: Margot Robbie

confidence level: medium (seems like a three-way race)

 

 

Best Animated Feature:

The Nominees:

Frozen II

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

The Lion King

Missing Link

Toy Story 4

 

will win: Toy Story 4

could win: Missing Link

should win: haven’t watched enough to render an opinion

confidence level: high

 

Best Foreign Language Film

The Nominees:

The Farewell

Les Miserables

Pain & Glory

Parasite

Portrait of a Lady on Fire

 

will win: Parasite

could win: The Farewell

should win: Parasite

confidence level: high

 

Best Original Score

The Nominees:

Alexandre Desplat (Little Women)

Hildur Guonadottir (Joker)

Randy Newman (Marriage Story)

Thomas Newman (1917)

Daniel Pemberton (Motherless Brooklyn)

 

will win: Thomas Newman

could win: Alexandre Desplat

should win: Randy Newman

confidence level: medium

 

Best Original Song

The Nominees:

“Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats

“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman

“Into the Unknown” from Frozen II

“Spirit” from The Lion King

“Stand Up” from Harriet

 

will win: (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again

could win: Into the Unknown

should win: don’t really care, to be honest

confidence level: medium

 

 

TELEVISION

*For the record, I didn’t include “should wins” because I just didn’t watch enough of the shows to feel passionately about the competition, but my two favorite of the year were Succession and Fleabag by a long shot over everything else.*

 

Best Drama Series

The Nominees:

Big Little Lies (Season 2)

The Crown (Season 3)

Killing Eve (Season 2)

The Morning Show (Season 1)

Succession (Season 2)

 

will win: Succession

could win: The Crown

confidence level: medium

 

Best Comedy/Musical Series

The Nominees:

Barry (Season 2)

Fleabag (Season 2)

The Kominsky Method (Season 2)

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Season 3)

The Politician (Season 1)

 

will win: Fleabag

could win: Barry

confidence level: high

 

Best Miniseries or TV Film

The Nominees:

Catch-22

Chernobyl

Fosse/Verdon

The Loudest Voice

Unbelievable

 

will win: Chernobyl

could win: Unbelievable

confidence level: medium

 

Best Male Actor in a Drama Series

The Nominees:

Brian Cox (Succession)

Kit Harington (Game of Thrones)

Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)

Tobias Menzies (The Crown)

Billy Porter (Pose)

 

will win: Billy Porter

could win: Brian Cox

confidence level: low (seems like a toss-up)

 

 

Best Female Actor in a Drama Series

The Nominees:

Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)

Olivia Colman (The Crown)

Jodie Comer (Killing Eve)

Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies)

Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show)

 

will win: Jennifer Aniston

could win:  Olivia Colman

confidence level: low (also seems like a toss-up)

 

Best Male Actor in a Comedy/Musical Series

The Nominees:

Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method)

Bill Hader (Barry)

Ben Platt (The Politician)

Paul Rudd (Living With Yourself)

Ramy Youssef (Ramy)

 

will win: Bill Hader

could win: Ramy Youssef (dark horse)

confidence level: medium

 

Best Female Actor in a Comedy/Musical Series

The Nominees:

Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)

Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

Kirsten Dunst (On Becoming a God in Central Florida)

Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll)

Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Fleabag)

 

will win: Phoebe Waller-Bridge

could win: Natasha Lyonne

confidence level: high

 

Best Male Actor in a Miniseries/TV Film

The Nominees:

Christopher Abbott (Catch-22)

Sacha Baron Cohen (The Spy)

Russell Crowe (The Loudest Voice)

Jared Harris (Chernobyl)

Sam Rockwell (Fosse/Verdon)

 

will win: Jared Harris

could win: Russell Crowe

confidence level: medium

 

Best Female Actor in a Miniseries/TV Film

The Nominees:

Kaitlyn Dever (Unbelievable)

Joey King (The Act)

Helen Mirren (Catherine the Great)

Merritt Wever (Unbelievable)

Michelle Williams (Fosse/Verdon)

 

will win: Michelle Williams

could win: Merritt Wever

confidence level: high

 

Best Supporting Male, All TV

The Nominees:

Alan Arkin (The Kominsky Method)

Kieran Culkin (Succession)

Andrew Scott (Fleabag)

Stellan Skarsgard (Chernobyl)

Henry Winkler (Barry)

 

will win: Andrew Scott

could win: Kieran Culkin

confidence level: high

 

Best Supporting Female, All TV

The Nominees:

Patricia Arquette (The Act)

Helena Bonham Carter (The Crown)

Toni Collette (Unbelievable)

Meryl Streep (Big Little Lies)

Emily Watson (Chernobyl)

 

will win: Meryl Streep

could win: Helena Bonham Carter

confidence level: low