-A prediction of who will be nominated in the major categories.

This will be the first of three articles on the site that will detail the progression of film’s award season. This article will pick who will be nominated in the major categories before the official selections come out this week. The next one will be picks in the minor categories, before the third article/finale of who will win in the major categories.

By major categories, I mean Picture, Directing, Acting, and Writing.

These predictions take into account the recent nominations and winners of minor ceremonies like the Golden Globes, AFI’s awards, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and the various Guilds (Screen Actors, Directors, Writers, and Producers). By weighing these all together, plus some personal educated guessing by seeing the movies, I try to make a good case for what films and actors will get recognized.

 

Best Picture:

Locks:

1- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2- The Shape of Water

3- Lady Bird

More Than Likely Nominated:

4- Call Me By Your Name

5- Dunkirk

6- The Post

Depends On How Many They Take:

7- Get Out

8- The Big Sick

9- Mudbound

10- The Florida Project

Actor Driven Pieces That Likely Stay Out:

11- I, Tonya

12- Darkest Hour

13- Molly’s Game

14- Phantom Thread

Blockbusters That Could Sneak In:

15- Wonder Woman

16- Blade Runner 2049

17- Coco

18- Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

Best Actress:

Locks:

1- Frances McDormand (Three Billboards…)

2- Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

3- Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

4- Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)

Who Gets the Fifth Spot?

5- Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game)

6- Meryl Streep (The Post)

7- Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul)

Dark Horse Candidates:

8- Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)

9- Diane Kruger (In the Fade)

10- Annette Bening (Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool)

11- Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)

12- Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)

 

Best Actor:

Locks:

1- Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

2- Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)

Likely Nominees:

3- James Franco (The Disaster Artist)

4- Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)

Again, Who Gets the Fifth Spot?:

5- Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

6- Tom Hanks (The Post)

7- Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

Character-Actor Dark Horses:

8- Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)

9- Christian Bale (Hostiles)

10- Robert Pattinson (Good Time)

11- Harry Dean Stanton (Lucky)

12- Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool)

 

Best Supporting Actress:

Locks:

1- Alison Janney (I, Tonya)

2- Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

4 Actresses, 3 Remaining Spots:

3- Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)

4- Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)

5- Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

6- Hong Chau (Downsizing)

Vocal Admirers of the Performance, but Is It Enough?

7- Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)

8- Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)

9- Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)

10- Melissa Leo (Novitiate)

11- Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project)

12- Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)

 

Best Supporting Actor:

Locks:

1- Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards…)

2- Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

3- Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

5 Recognized Actors for 2 Remaining Spots:

4- Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)

5- Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards…)

6- Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)

7- Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)

8- Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)

Dark Horse Candidates:

9- Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)

10- Ray Romano (The Big Sick)

11- Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)

12- Patrick Stewart (Logan)

 

Best Director:

Locks:

1- Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

2- Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards…)

All Good Options:

3- Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

4- Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)

5- Jordan Peele (Get Out)

6- Steven Spielberg (The Post)

7- Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)

Good Efforts, but Likely Sit Out:

8- Sean Baker (The Florida Project)

9- Dee Rees (Mudbound)

10- Denis Villanueve (Blade Runner 2049)

11- Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World)

12- Craig Gillespie (I, Tonya)

 

Best Original Screenplay:

Locks:

1- M. McDonagh (Three Billboards…)

2- G. Gerwig (Lady Bird)

Likely Nominees:

3- J. Peele (Get Out)

4- G. Del Toro & V. Taylor (The Shape of Water)

Who Gets the Fifth Spot?:

5- E. Gordon & K. Nanjiani (The Big Sick)

6- S. Rogers (I, Tonya)

7- L. Hannah & J. Singer (The Post)

Other Options:

8- S. Baker & C. Bergoch (The Florida Project)

9- N. Baumbach (The Meyerowitz Stories)

10- P.T. Anderson (Phantom Thread)

 

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Locks:

1- J. Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)

2- A. Sorkin (Molly’s Game)

Three Spots, Likely for Some of These Four:

3- D. Rees & V. Williams (Mudbound)

4- S. Neustadter & M. Weber (The Disaster Artist)

5- J. Thorne, S. Conrad & S. Chbosky (Wonder)

6- L. Hall (Victoria & Abdul)

Other Options:

7- D. Stewart & S. Cooper (Hostiles)

8- M. Greenhalgh & P. Turner (Film Stars Don’t…)

9- S. Frank, J. Mangold & M. Green (Logan)

10- H. Fancher & M. Green (Blade Runner 2049)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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